PTA will deliver a large amount of goods for the f

2022-08-10
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PTA will deliver in large quantities for the first time by the end of yesterday. As of yesterday's close, the position of PTA 809 contract in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 98532, and the theoretical maximum delivery volume was 246300 tons. At present, the number of PTA warehouse receipts and the number of warehouse receipts effectively predicted in the delivery warehouse have exceeded 268900 tons. PTA contract will deliver in large quantities for the first time since 249 steel structure was listed on December 18, 2006! Such a spectacular physical delivery volume makes market participants daydream. Is it necessary to stage a position closing farce? Can short sellers deliver so much? Are the Bulls capable of coming next? Is there default risk in the market

Zheng Shangsuo: huge delivery is normal

less than two years after listing, PTA will have such a large delivery. There were rumors in the market for a time, and there were inconclusive rumors of closing positions, but Zheng Shangsuo did not think so. Zheng Shangsuo said in an interview, "compared with the delivery of soybeans, this trading volume is not uncommon. It is normal to have such a delivery volume. At present, there is no risk of default in the market."

in an interview, the exchange confirmed that the current warehouse receipt forecast has exceeded 250000 tons, and there are still eight trading days until next month's delivery, and the daily warehousing volume is increasing. Unless there is force majeure such as earthquake and typhoon, there is no risk of default in the market at present. At present, the number of registered warehouse receipts and the number of valid forecast warehouse receipts have exceeded the position of 809 contract, and the position of 809 contract is still decreasing. It is still uncertain how many positions will enter the delivery link in the end

Zhejiang Yong'an branch is the same in other fields. Analyst Liu Wenwang also believes that although the number of warehouse receipts is large, it does not mean that all deliveries will be made on 809. Although the hedging position has 30000 hands (150000 tons), it is not necessarily to receive the spot. This is only the theoretical maximum trading volume, and the registered warehouse receipts are now only forecasts, with many uncertainties

Zhejiang Yong'an: the position pressing method is not appropriate.

according to the warehouse receipt data published by the exchange, as of August 11, there were 9957 PTA warehouse receipts, with an effective forecast of 5505 hands, a total of 77310 tons of spot inventory. Compared with the contract position of 654000 tons, the market once had much concern about short pressing

PTA had a rebound from August 12 to August 21, and then PTA warehouse receipts and warehouse receipt forecasts increased significantly. As of yesterday's close, it has exceeded the position of pta809, and the theoretical maximum deliverable is more than the position, The market began to worry about too much air pressure

Liu Wenwang, an analyst at Zhejiang Yong'an, believes that delivery in the market is normal, and the word "forcing" may not be appropriate. It is impossible to say who forces whom. Both long and short sides make their own decisions based on their judgment of the market

cross market arbitrage or the main reason is that the current recession in the textile industry leads to insufficient PTA demand, which is an important negative factor for futures and spot goods. The market characteristics of industrial products determine that raw material prices are the main factor affecting prices. With the decline of international crude oil prices, analysts believe that PTA prices are not optimistic in the short term

under the pressure of RMB appreciation, export trade orders decreased, leading to PTA prices may fall again, and polyester market prices have begun to fall; Monetary tightening has increased the financial pressure on textile enterprises, the downturn in the textile industry has made it difficult for the chemical fiber industry, and the consumption in the downstream market of PTA is light, which will inhibit the price rise of PTA driven by technological innovation

pta spot is currently maintained at around 8600~8700 yuan/ton, and the futures market price closed at 8898 yuan/ton yesterday. Liu Wenwang, an analyst, believes that if the spot bought at a low level in the early stage needs to be sold, it is more cost-effective to sell it in futures than in spot. Since it can sell nearly 300 yuan more, short sellers are very willing to do such a transaction. Moreover, there are opportunities for cross market arbitrage between futures and spot markets, which may be the reason for the continuous growth of warehouse receipts. He believes that it is more practical to analyze large-scale delivery from the perspective of futures and current cross market arbitrage than simply talking about more short selling and more short selling

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