PTA weekly report of the hottest Guangfa Futures C

  • Detail

GF Futures: crude oil PTA weekly report

NYMEX crude oil

I. weekly review of crude oil

last week, wit crude oil depreciated in the US dollar, EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly, geopolitical tensions, OPEC maintained output unchanged, Russian crude oil production, the second largest crude oil exporter, fell for the first time in a decade, and in the traditional off-season of consumption in the second quarter, crude oil consumption in consumer countries led by China was strong, Driven by multiple positive factors such as tight international crude oil supply and demand, WTI crude oil reached record highs. WTI crude oil closed at $116.69/barrel on Friday, reaching $117/barrel in the session

II. Market outlook

USD: according to the data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the manufacturing index of the Central Atlantic region of the United States fell to negative 24.9 in April, which was far worse than expected and the lowest since February 2001, indicating that the U.S. economy is still weak after the Federal reserve sharply cut interest rates. On the same day, the vice chairman of the Fed said that the banks' cautious attitude towards loans ultimately improved the quality of products and increased the risk of economic downturn. However, on Friday, due to the better than expected performance of Citigroup, the market believed that the darkest period of the U.S. economy was over, and the dollar rebounded. However, if the U.S. economy does not fundamentally improve, it will be difficult to change the downward trend of the dollar. In addition, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice, which also puts pressure on the dollar

investment funds: as of last Tuesday, the net position of the fund increased slightly from the previous week to 6 PLGA has 650000 random copolymers, indicating that the fund is still bullish on crude oil. In addition, rising inflation in the United States has also led investors to enter the commodity market to seek hedging

eia inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (except SPR) in the week of August 11 decreased by 2.3 million barrels compared with the previous week to 313.7 million barrels, below the average level in the same period; The total gasoline inventory decreased by 5.5 million barrels, still above the average level in the same period; Last week, commercial oil inventories decreased by a total of 8million barrels, below the average level in the same period. Last week, the average daily crude oil import volume of the United States decreased by 33000 barrels, about 8.9 million barrels, and the average daily crude oil import volume of American refineries was about 14.2 million barrels, 113000 barrels lower than the average value of the previous week. Refinery operating rate fell 1.6% to 81.4%. Average daily gasoline production fell further, to about 8.8 million barrels. From the perspective of inventory, the supply and demand of crude oil in the United States are tight. Us energy secretary Sam Bodman said on Friday that even if the oil price is above $100/barrel, the US government will not delay its plan to expand strategic oil reserves this summer

at present, despite the sharp rise in crude oil, OPEC still has no intention to increase production. At the same time, the decline in domestic production of important non OPEC oil products such as Russia also makes the market nervous. In addition, the United States, the largest crude oil demander, announced that it will still expand its strategic oil reserves, suggesting that the United States will not deliberately suppress oil prices. At the same time, there is no sign of warming in the U.S. economy in the short term. Even if the dollar rebounds, the space is limited, so, On the whole, international crude oil will remain strong, even if the callback space is limited

PTA of Zhengzhou commercial exchange

I. market outlook

1 Zhengzhou inventory pressure is still at a high level to suppress PTA upward

as of April 18, Zhengzhou warehouse receipts were 38143, a decrease of 14 compared with the previous day. The effective forecast 1678 accounts for such a large share, which is mainly due to its key utilization fields, indicating that inventory pressure is still at a high level

2 upstream cost support began to use the 100% recycled materials developed to meet relevant quality standards or packaging design enhancements

driven by the sharp rise in crude oil last week, PX has gathered popularity, tight spot supply, and more late maintenance of PX devices, which is expected to have room for growth

4 weak downstream demand is difficult to change

the macro environment at home and abroad in 2008 was very unfavorable to the development of the textile industry on the whole. In addition to the increase of labor costs by more than 20%, the appreciation of the RMB has accelerated since 2008. Last week, the RMB broke through seven against the US dollar for the first time. At the same time, the corresponding foreign trade environment is the recession of the US economy, the decline of the economies of Europe and Japan, and the serious decline of consumer confidence index, The textile and clothing orders with an external dependence of more than 40% have shrunk seriously, and some orders have been transferred to Southeast Asia. Domestic demand is close to saturation. At present, polyester factories are operating at low profits and continue to digest inventory. In terms of terminal demand, the Canton Fair was disappointing

II. Operation suggestions: at present, the upstream support of PTA has been strengthened, but the weak demand is difficult to change. PTA may stabilize and rebound slightly. In operation, it is recommended to focus on short-term operation and buy a small amount of bargain hunting tentatively long

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI