PTA rebound will still be limited when the hottest

2022-08-24
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PTA rebound strength will still be limited when the bottom starts to build in stages

part I: trend review

the figure shows PTA and wti3. Connection analysis - crude oil price trend chart. (picture source: CSC futures)

domestic experimental machine enterprises lack long-term plans. Source: Wenhua finance CSC futures

in the third quarter, international crude oil formed an oscillating trend in the US dollar range, while PTA staged a roller coaster market. Driven by the expectation of global economic recovery and the continued weakness of the US dollar, international crude oil broke through the high of US $72.68 in June and hit a new high this year, but the futures price was blocked at the important level of US $75 due to weak demand. After the rapid rise in July, under the dual pressure of weakening upstream cost support and destocking of downstream industries, PTA plummeted more than 20% after hitting a new high of 8400 yuan in August

Part II: market analysis

I. the global economy has entered a preliminary recovery, and the US dollar is facing further downward pressure

from the economic data released by the world's major economies, the global economy shows obvious signs of stabilization and begins to enter a preliminary recovery stage. First, industrial output continued to pick up, with the U.S. PMI index exceeding 50 for two consecutive months, Japan PMI index exceeding 50 for three consecutive months, and the euro zone PMI index also hit a new high of 49.3 since the rebound. Secondly, consumption rebounded steadily, of which personal consumption expenditure in the United States rose by 0.25% month on month in July, rising for three consecutive months. The year-on-year decline in retail sales in August continued to narrow, and the consumer confidence index also rose sharply to 73.5 in September; Retail sales and consumer confidence in the euro zone and Japan have also improved to varying degrees. Thirdly, the U.S. real estate market further improved, and the number of new housing starts stopped falling and stabilized. The MBA mortgage market composite index rose sharply in September compared with the previous month, indicating that the U.S. real estate market will further recover in the future. Finally, the employment situation in various countries is still not optimistic. In September, the unemployment rate in the United States further rose to 9.8%, and the unemployment rate in the euro zone also rose to 9.6%

it is worth mentioning that although Israel and Australia, which have better economic conditions, took the lead in raising interest rates, the employment situation of the major economies is still worrying, and the deflation pressure is still not small (the year-on-year decline of CPI and PPI in the United States has narrowed, and the deflation pressure has decreased, but the deflation situation in the euro area is still, and the service life of microcomputer controlled models is a little longer than that of LCD digital display models.), The author believes that it is unlikely that major economies will take interest rate hikes during the year. From the leading indicators of major economies, the global economy has begun to enter the initial stage of recovery, but the recovery is not so small

the figure shows the trend of manufacturing PMI index in major countries. (image source: wind CSC futures)

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